Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

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Manufacturing forecast: Sunny days ahead

April 12th, 2013
By: Dan Davis

Is current economic news making you unenthusiastic about the rest of this year and 2014? The editors at The Kiplinger Letter say not to fret. Manufacturing's future in the U.S. appears to be pretty good in the near term.

In the early April newsletter, editors suggested that, even though manufacturing may appear to be losing some of its momentum this year, it will continue to be a strong driver of growth during this "feeble" economic expansion.  Manufacturing growth is expected to be 2.2 percent in 2013, just a little higher than the forecast GDP growth of 2 percent, but could be greater if public pressure forces lawmakers to moderate the effects of budget cuts related to the federal sequester. In 2014 manufacturing growth could hit 3.5 percent. In fact, manufacturing production levels should reach 2007 levels in 2014.

To dig deeper into the forecast, The FABRICATOR talked with Karen Mracek, a Kiplinger Letter associate editor. (more...)

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A race to the bottom

April 4th, 2013
By: Vicki Bell

“Wal Mart is the death knell for small business everywhere they open shop. Wal-Mart is good for small business in the same way amputation is a successful weight-loss program. Wal-Mart is killing America, and if you shopped there this week, here’s hoping the American job you just shipped overseas is yours!”

So reads a comment about the money.cnn.com article “The Wal-Mart economy’s big winners,” which focused on four small U.S. businesses that “hit the big one” by securing Wal-Mart orders. There are some lessons to be learned from each of these businesses, lessons that are as basic as any in business: Listen to the market; find a need and fill it; and be persistent. There also are lessons to be learned from the comments left for this article. But it doesn’t appear that these lessons are getting through. (more...)

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A decade later, cautious optimism still applies

March 21st, 2013
By: Vicki Bell

ManpowerGroup has released its latest Employment Outlook Survey findings, which suggest that employers worldwide are seeking signs of a robust global economy before labor markets are likely to achieve sustainable traction.

Despite the recent stock market gains, thought by some to be a barometer of a healthier U.S. economy, more than enough uncertainty remains to keep many employers from hiring. And it doesn’t appear that these concerns will be assuaged anytime soon. (more...)

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News you can use

March 8th, 2013
By: Dan Davis

Last week more than 100 metal fabricators gathered for The FABRICATOR's Leadership Summit in Palm Harbor, Fla. The conference attendees seemed optimistic as most are in the midst of coping with expanding business opportunities.

But with such pressures come concerns. Everyone apparently is looking out of the corners of their eyes in hopes that they can see what challenges are coming next. Uncertainly still abounds.

Fortunately, the conference provided metal fabricators a chance to absorb some expert observations. FMA economic analyst Dr. Chris Kuehl and Donald McNeeley, president and COO, Chicago Tube & Iron Co., and professor at Northwestern University, took the stage the afternoon of Feb. 27 to talk about current business conditions. Some of the insights were noteworthy:

  • Kuehl works with the National Association of Credit Management to put together the Credit Managers' Index (CMI), which is similar in structure to the PMI, the prominent index used to gauge the health of the manufacturing industry. The CMI, however, is more forwar-looking as it's based on credit applications, the step needed before any type of uptick in manufacturing activity occurs. Kuehl reported that more credit applications have been submitted and approved the last three months than in the last two years combined. The money has been there to lend, but only now are lending institutions and borrowers connecting to put the funds to use. (more...)

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The scoop on U.S. worker confidence

February 6th, 2013
By: Vicki Bell

In the early days of 2013, January 3, to be exact, Randstad released the results of its December U.S. Employee Confidence survey that painted a rosy picture heading into the new year. The Confidence Index was 55.4, one of the highest levels of optimism recorded in 2012.

The Index, which measures employee insights on jobs, the economy, and their personal employment situation, found more workers believe the economy is not only getting stronger, but more jobs are available.

That was then. February 1, Randstad released its findings for January that indicate workers are more concerned about jobs and the economy as the index decreased 3.3 points in January to 52.1. Granted, the index has remained about 50.0 for the past year, but what’s to blame for this decline that’s steeper than any month-to-month comparison in 2012? Care to guess? (more...)

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FABTECH 2012: A reason for optimism

November 16th, 2012
By: Dan Davis

The year was 2008. FABTECH, North America's largest metal fabricating and forming technology tradeshow, was making its first visit to Las Vegas. The opening day of the event generated a lot of excitement because more visitors attended that first day than had ever attended a FABTECH opening day, which included the typically larger Chicago shows. Many attendees were uncertain about the economy cooling down, but plenty of others blamed such talk on the liberal media trying to sabotage the economy. Several weeks later, however, any enthusiasm soon faded; the U.S. economy seemingly fell off of the cliff.

The year is 2012. FABTECH returned to Las Vegas, Nov. 12-14. The opening day generated similar numbers as the show four years ago. Attendees still don't know how much their taxes will go up in 2013 or just how much the federal government's new health care mandate will cost them. Meanwhile, some attendees point the finger at the liberal media for not recognizing that the metal manufacturing sector is operating at near-full capacities. Business is good, but uncertainty remains high even after the presidential election. Can the Republican majority in the House of Representatives work with the Democratic majority in the Senate to provide a roadmap that helps the federal government avoid the huge mandatory budget cuts that are linked to the "fiscal cliff"?

It appears what is old is new again—much to everyone's frustration. But there is good news, and that is fueling quiet optimism among the metal fabricating community walking the floors of FABTECH 2012. Everyone is lean and means to grow the business. Everyone is waiting on the right moment to do it, however.

(more...)

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Letter to the President

November 7th, 2012
By: Vicki Bell

Dear President Obama:

Congratulations on your reelection. Although I did not vote for you, I sincerely wish you the best of luck and fervently hope that you are able to work with our gridlocked Congress to enact measures that will help our economy. Frankly, I am discouraged by the past four years, and I don’t believe our country can take four more years of the same.

Today, nbcnews.com ran a post-election piece entitled “Now that he’s won, the six splitting headaches waiting for Obama”: Automatic spending cuts; taxes going up, by a significant amount—and not just on the rich; debt limit; confirmation of pivotal Cabinet members (replacements for Tim Geithner and Hillary Clinton) and regulatory chiefs; implementing the Affordable Care Act and appointing the members of the Independent Payment Advisory Board; and chaos in Syria, WMD—and don’t forget Iran.

And then there’s the small matter of the economy, supposedly the No. 1 concern among voters in this election. (more...)

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No votes for education?

October 24th, 2012
By: Vicki Bell

The current survey on thefabricator.com’s homepage asks which issue in the upcoming presidential election is most important to site visitors. It’s no surprise that the economy, including taxes, debt and deficit, and jobs, is the No. 1 concern with 55 percent of the votes.

Of the 13 remaining choices listed, 12 have earned one or more percent. The only choice that hasn’t received a single vote as of this writing is education.

Setting aside the fact that education likely may be among the choices of those who selected the option “several are of equal importance to me” (24 percent), it honestly concerns me that not one person chose it as most important. Have we simply become comfortable with the status of education in the U.S.? (More about this later.) Do we think that unless the others issues are addressed—for example, job creation—education doesn’t matter all that much? (more...)

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Low-key Labor Day celebration

August 30th, 2012
By: Vicki Bell

The workweek is winding down, and the Labor Day Weekend is upon us. As I thought about what my family might do to “celebrate,” it occurred to me that I don’t really feel all that inclined to celebrate. Yes, I’m grateful to have the day off to relax and maybe catch up on some much-needed yard work, but I’m mindful of the millions of Americans whose Labor Day will be, at best, like any other jobless day, and perhaps worse as they watch the employed among them fire up the grills and participate in other festivities, such as parades featuring smoke-blowing politicians.

It’s difficult to put an exact number on just how many of our citizens are out of work. We have the “official” unemployment numbers that don’t take into account the number of workers who’ve given up looking. And we have the underemployed—those who are working at jobs that are below their skill levels and don’t pay enough, let alone provide benefits.

According to The Bureau of Labor Statistics report for the month of July, both the number of unemployed persons (12.8 million) and the unemployment rate (8.3 percent) were essentially unchanged, and both measures have shown little movement thus far in 2012. I’m not an economist, but personal observation and news reports I’ve read lead me to believe that August won’t fare much better. (more...)

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In defense of military spending

August 24th, 2012
By: Dan Davis

Who do you believe the Mayans or the political pundits?

If the Mayans' ancient beliefs are correct, you shouldn't plan anything after Dec. 21 because that's supposedly the end of the world. For those that have their doubts about the prognostication power of ancient people, all they have to do is look ahead to the end of the year as the U.S. government approaches the dreaded "fiscal cliff," the time when a combination of tax cuts suddenly end and $100 billion in federal government spending cuts are enacted. Pundits believe that'll bring any U.S. economic growth to a complete stop and cause a slump that makes the Great Recession look like spring break.

Will it be the end of the world as we know it by the start of 2013?

(more...)

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